Gameweek 21 Preview

It has felt like an age since the last gameweek with this international break going on. But we are back into Eliteserien football this weekend and the beginning of the final third of the season.

Glimt are still unbeaten of course after a pretty unconvincing win over Sandefjord last time out, and Molde got back to winning ways beating Brann. It is Rosenborg however, who have appeared in second place after a shocking start to the season, and the battle for second spot really looks set to go down to the wire.

I should probably also really review the bets I did in each preview, so for the final 10 weeks I will do that, starting now:

Bets of the Week for previous Gameweek

Vålerenga HT/FT (2.05) NAP

Odd to score in FH v Rosenborg (2.20)

Molde to win v Brann (2.30)

Sandnes ULF to score 2+ goals v Grorud (1.83)

So it was 3 out of 4 last time out, and for those that play the Bet Builders, it was 5 of 8 that hit the mark. Pretty good strike rate for the weekend!

On to this week, and it is the usual two games on Saturday followed by five games on Sunday. This is due to a positive covid test in the Viking camp, meaning their match with Odd is cancelled this weekend.

Saturday 17th October

Mjøndalen v Brann (Away Win)

Mjøndalen lost again last time out at Vålerenga, although in the first half they really did play far better. A terrible error by keeper Makani, something that has been creeping into his game, gave Vålerenga the lead right on the half.

Mjøndalen fought back to level in the second half, but fell apart almost immediately and have now lost six in a row, and 13 out of the previous 15 games.

Brann themselves are in poor form and haven't won in five, slipping to tenth place and worryingly they are only five points clear of Start in the relegation playoff spot. Last time out they lost to Molde at home 1-2, in what was a close game that Bamba scored in. But a late own goal from Ruben Kristiansen, who is having a shocking season, means Brann have only two wins from the previous 13 games.

So a game of two sides out of form, but it is fair to say Brann are expected to be much further up the table than Mjøndalen. I guess the main difference between the two sides is in the goal scored column. Brann have scored in 11 of 12 games, meanwhile Mjøndalen in the same period have only scored in half of their games. 

Brann have generally been better on the road this season, picking up 14 points away from home and just the 9 at home, so I fancy them to get a crucial win here. They counter attack fairly well with the pace they have with Bamba and Taylor, so they should cause Mjøndalen problems.

Mjøndalen have conceded at least two goals in their previous six games, and they are likely to be a little more open again as they seek points this week, that should suit Brann.

Brann also signed Sander Svendsen at the end of the window, and he could be a very good signing, the forward and former Molde man scored 13 for Odense in the Danish Superliga last year, he should score goals for Brann.

Something else worth looking at is corners. The previous 12 Brann games have had at least 9 corners in them, so worth putting that in the bet builder. 

Mjøndalen actually beat Brann in the return fixture, one of their two wins on this horrendous run. It was 0-1 in Bergen, and I expect we might see a low scoring game here, but the result could well go the other way.

Bamba has scored two in a row now, a man with the second highest expected goals in the league, he has missed plenty good chances, maybe he can build some momentum for the rest of the season.

Bet Builder: Brann Win/Draw Double chance, 9+ match corners, under 4.5 match goals (2.15)

Goalscorers to add to Bet Builder: Bamba(2.40), Svendsen(2.60) or Liseth(2.87)

Molde v Bodø/Glimt (Draw)

Molde beat Brann late last time out to get back to winning ways as I predicted, but now they face the successors to their Eliteserien crown. They are in a battle now for second place with Rosenborg, Odd, Vålerenga and Kristiansund, although I make Molde favourites to get there in the end.

Glimt know that this is probably their toughest task in the final ten games if they are to go unbeaten all season. Last time out in their first match without the departed JP Hauge, they beat Sandefjord 2-1, but it was less than convincing.

The Hauge shaped hole has been partially filled by Hugo Vetlesen, who joined from Stabæk just before the window shut. He is different to Hauge, probably more likely to play in the 3 in midfield than up top, but a really exciting player who is having a good season.

The reverse fixture finished 3-1 in Bodø, and although the bookies have Molde as favourites for this one, I think Glimt should be going in as favourites. A high scoring draw could well be the most likely outcome, the top two scoring teams in the division and two teams that like to play on the front foot.

Glimt have scored at least two in every game so far this season, and Molde have scored in every game bar one, so both teams will most likely score.

Molde have done some transfer business of their own, Birk Risa arriving from Odd. The U21 international with Norway has impressed at left back this season, although he can play in a number of positions. Kristoffer Haugen perhaps hasn't been at his best this year, so Risa might come in for him this week at left back, although Zinckernagel has given him a horrible time this season in 4-0 and 6-1 wins for Glimt against Odd.

This is a huge test for both teams, and a very exciting game to look forward to on Saturday evening. I think it might be a draw, but Molde will no doubt be desperate to beat Glimt and stop them going unbeaten.

Glimt have won seven in a row, still only dropping four points all season, so they are full of confidence and should be going to Aker Stadion to attack, they still haven't lost this season, and I think with their ultra fast transition to counter attack, they will remain unbeaten for another week at least.

Bet Builder: Both teams to score, over 3.5 goals in the match, goal scored in both halves (2.10)

Goalscorers to add to Bet Builder: Zinckernagel (2.20), Hussein (3.00) or Saltnes (4.50)

Sunday 18th October

Haugesund v Sarpsborg (Draw)

Haugesund have been in poor form recently as they get dragged into a relegation fight, and it was a 5-1 defeat at Start for them last time out that has to worry supporters. 3-0 down at the half, they were never in the game and this makes this week a huge fixture for them. 

Conceding five against Start is really poor, and that is now 13 in the last 4 games they have conceded. So it will need to be a real improvement from now on in, after four without a win they need to get back to winning ways.

Sarpsborg are up to 8th after a four match unbeaten run, including a 4-0 hammering of Stabæk last time out. They have really strengthened the team after losing Coulibaly and Larsen with the introduction of Heintz and Molins, and now also the return of Saletros. 

Sarpsborg haven't conceded a goal since Glimt beat them five games ago, so they are solid in defense, and with the extra quality in attack, they have added a real threat. It makes them slight favourites here for me, although it is a really tough one to call.

I don't expect it to be a goal fest, Sarpsborg have only scored 8 goals in away games this season, and Haugesund after the last two weeks will probably tighten things up. There is a chance that right back Desler is missing for Haugesund, he is a really important attacking chance creator for them, so he would be a big miss.

The big difference in the last game for Sarpsborg was that Molins was a real presence in attack, and he linked the play very well, leaving space for players around him. I think this could cause Haugesund a lot of problems.

I do think however that at home, Haugesund will score as well. They have scored in 8 out of 10 of their home games, including their previous five, so both teams to score will be on my mind here.

Haugesund home games usually lend themselves to plenty corners too, averaging nearly 13 a match, 11 or more in 8 of the 10 games. 

It is a tough game to call, but should be an exciting enough game, and no result would surprise me really.

Bet Builder: Both teams to score, 9+ corners (2.45)

Goalscorers to add to Bet Builder: Klitten (4.00), Saletros (8.50) or Heintz (4.75)

Kristiansund v Rosenborg (Draw)

Kristiansund kept pace with the top five last time out with a 2-1 win in Aalesund, goals coming from Moumbagna and Kalludra in the second half after being behind at the break. So no goal for Pellegrino breaking a run of 7 straight games he scored in.

Rosenborg were really impressive at home to Odd and beat them 4-1 at Lerkendal, goals coming from Reitan, Zachariassen and a double for big Dino Islamovic. Islamovic was really poor at the start of the season, but in fairness to him he has really improved his all round game and looks much more of a threat the longer the season goes on.

Despite the form of big Dino, Rosenborg have signed 21 year old Swede, Rasmus Wiedesheim-Paul to compete up top. He has been in great form for Halmstad in the second tier in Sweden and looks an exciting addition.

RBK jumped to second in the table, and now look to have a real chance of finishing there, although only four points separate them in second and Kristiansund in sixth.

This should be a really good game between two in form teams. The home team have only lost twice in their previous 12 games, and the away side are eight unbeaten, so this should be a really close one.

Both these teams score plenty goals, it is 12 games since either of them didn't find the net, so both teams to score is very likely. Although the reverse fixture was 0-0, that was gameweek 1, so I'm willing to give that a pass considering the Covid situation meant it was a little bit of a warm up game.

Rosenborg are not as convincing away as they are at home, so that makes me think they might struggle to take three points here, I like the directness of Kristiansund, and also think Pellegrino can find space on the left wing considering Rosenborg like their fullbacks to attack.

These teams have scored 14 and 15 respectively in their last 6 games, so goals has to be expected, and they are two teams that have plenty corners. KBK average over 6.5 corners at home, meanwhile RBK average nearly 8 corners away from home, so expect corners and goals in what should be another top game this weekend.

Bet Builder: 10+ match corners, both teams to score, over 2.5 match goals (2.30)

Goalscorers to add to Bet Builder: Islamovic (2.62), Pellegrino (1.95), Zachariassen (3.40)

Stabæk v Aalesunds (Home Win)

Stabæk were shocking last week in the first half at Sarpsborg, 4-0 down at the break and they never looked like recovering. Their first game without captain Hanche-Olsen after his move to Gent, and they looked terrible at the back.

They have tried to rectify that by bringing in Gustav Valsvik from Rosenborg, so he should help them in that department. They have also lost Hugo Vetlesen to Glimt, and his energy and quality will be missed too. 

Aalesund lost again despite being ahead at the break against Kristiansund last week thanks to Markus Karlsbakk's first senior goal for Aalesund. The 20 year old midfielder has scored plenty goals for the 2nd team, so will likely get a chance to play some minutes now towards the end of the season.

Stabæk have not been in great form recently, winning only two of their last 11 games. Those two wins however have come in their previous two home games, wins against Haugesund and Start. So I expect they should be good enough to see off Aalesund at home.

Aalesund obviously now are going down, just one win all season, seven points in total, it has been a total failure of a year for them in Eliteserien. They can salvage some pride, and although they have lost seven in a row, five of those games have been by just one goal. 

I don't think this game will be particularly high scoring, Stabæk at home have 11 goals and 10 conceded in their 10 games, so they generally keep it quite tight at Nadderud Stadion. I can see the home side winning a close game 2-1 or 1-0.

Every Stabæk home game has had at least nine corners, so that seems likely again, given the last four Aalesund games have had 9 or more as well, it should happen.

Stabæk price is very short, not worth backing, although they should come out on top, it isn't as clear cut as many would think.

Bet Builder: Stabæk to win either half and 9+ match corners (2.02)

Goalscorers to add to Bet Builder: Antonsson (2.25), Karlsbakk (9.50) or Kinoshita (2.60)

Strømsgodset v Start (Home win)¨

Godset manager Henrik Pedersen was furious last week when his team threw away three points late on, as they continue to struggle for win. They haven't won in the last six games, drawing five in a row now incredibly.

Last week they were two up thanks to Salvesen and Johan Hove, probably their two best players in recent weeks who they need to step up and take control of the game this week.

Start won 5-1 over Haugesund, an excellent first half display had them 3-0 up, thanks to Schulze and el Makrini adding to an early own goal. Further goals were added by Schulze and then amazingly, another own goal by the same player, Ulrik Fredriksen the unlucky party.

It was a huge win for Start who have been over reliant on their home form to give them any hope of staying up. Just two points picked up on the road this year, so they are unlikely to be winning this weekend.

Strømsgodset haven't won at home since July, so they need to start picking up wins, and I do think they will find a way this weekend. Start usually try and keep it tight away from home, but they always concede and find it difficult to come out into attacking mode afterwards.

Start have only scored 7 goals away from home this season, but I think Godset need to win this and will probably give up some chances on the break. Start also really could do with a win, so both teams to score is good value. 

Lars Jørgen Salvesen has started to look much sharper recently, and I like the look of him to get on the scoresheet here. The 24 year old only has six goals, but he should be hitting double figures easily before the season is out.

Neither side has strengthened at the end of the window, so it will be up the the current players to get back to winning ways for the home side, and for Start to get out the playoff spot.

I won't play corners here, but interestingly Godset have had fewer corners than their opponent in all the previous six home games.

Bet Builder: Both teams to score, Strømsgodset to win either half (2.10)

Goalscorers to add to Bet Builder: Salvesen (2.25), Schulze (3.75) or Tokstad (3.75)

Sandefjord v Vålerenga (Draw)

Sandefjord last week were unlucky in defeat to Glimt, losing 2-1 in what was a fairly even game. They were 2-0 down but fought back into the game with Lars Markmanrud smashing home after a corner fell to him. 

Deyver Vega hit the post in the 2nd half, and there were a couple near misses, but Sandefjord ultimately lost putting them just five points clear of Start.

Vålerenga won 4-1 at home to Mjøndalen, as mentioned with help from Mjøndalen keeper Makani. Bård Finne and Henrik Bjørdal picked up a couple of goals each as they continued their unbeaten form at home.

Away from home has been a different story for Vålerenga, which makes this game a tough one for them. They have lost three in a row away from home at Glimt, Haugesund and Start, so Sandefjord will definitely fancy their chances here.

Sandefjord have picked up some great results away from home recently, although they haven't won their previous three home games to this one. So it is a tough one to call, and a draw could well be a likely outcome.

Both teams have better records when they play away and home respectively, so it is tough to predict here, although I do think there will be goals. Vålerenga have failed to score only once in the last 11 games, and Sandefjord have failed to score twice in their last 14, so I think it should be a game we can expect goals.

Only one game in the last 11 has had fewer than three goals in Vålerenga fixtures, and they do lend themselves to scoring goals with the attacking football they try and play. 

Something else to look at is cards. Sandefjord have more cards than anyone at home, Vålerenga are second in games away from home. These are the 2nd and 3rd teams when it comes to total yellow cards, so if you like playing card bets, this is your game.

Bet Builder: Both teams to score, over 2.5 goals in the match (2.30)

Goalscorers to add to Bet Builder: Kjartansson (2.40), Vega (3.25) or Bjørdal (6.00)

Eliteserien Bets of the Week

Brann to score 2+ goals (2.0)

Bodø/Glimt Draw no bet to beat Molde (2.0)

BTTS Double - Kristiansund v Rosenborg and Sandefjord v Vålerenga (2.44)

1st Division Bet of the Week

Tromsø HT/FT v KFUM Oslo (2.10)