Friday 28 August 2020

Gameweek 16 Preview

Eliteserien rolls onto the second half of the season as teams come up against others they have met already this season. Molde, Glimt and Rosenborg will come into this week off the back of a European game, and there will be a new manager in the dugout for Aalesund after Lars Bohinen was let go.

This weekend sees two games on Saturday and six on Sunday before a free weekend next week due to international fixtures.

Saturday 29th August


Haugesund v Vålerenga (Draw)


Haugesund picked up a nice win away at Aalesund last week, eventually running out 3-1 winners. They were behind in the first half, but a first goal of the season for Ibrahima Wadji after his doping suspension, was followed up by a Niklas Sandberg double. The first was from the spot, the second a quality curling finish from 20 yards.

Vålerenga got a 2-1 win at home to Sandefjord, leaving it very late with two goals in the last 10 minutes from an unlikely source. It was Bård Finne who got them both, but the surprise was that both were with his head. It was deserved in fairness, the second one a really excellent Aron Dønnum cross setting him up for a glancing header. 

The reverse fixture saw Vålerenga win 1-0 in July, and I think we can expect another tight game here with probably not many goals. Haugesund are the second lowest scoring team in the league averaging a goal a game, Vålerenga have 21 from their 15 games, but away from home it is only 8 from 8.

It is hard to predict a winner here, but the form of Sandberg last time out is a real bonus for Haugesund. One thing that has been quite consistent is they attack at home and win plenty corners. At least 6 in the previous 7 home games, so maybe something to look at.

It isn't a game you can bet on goals, or a result really, so have to find value elsewhere. Vålerenga have had two yellow cards in 13 of 15 games, so maybe something to bet on there.

It is one I'll avoid, but there is value in Vålerenga to win, draw no bet at better than evens. They have lost 3 games this season, and are a better side than Haugesund. They are used to playing on grass, and the 3 games they have lost this season, at Molde, Start and Odd, have all been on artificial surfaces. 

Also, Vålerenga have failed to score in only 1 game this season, so expect them to get at least one here.

Bet Builder: Vålerenga to score and under 3.5 goals in the match (2.00)

Goalscorers to add to Bet Builder: Sandberg(3.10), Finne(2.87) or Stokke(3.10)


Brann v Strømsgodset (Home Win)


Monday night saw Brann pick up a really good win away at Stabæk, although they rode their luck a little with the hosts hitting the woodwork twice. Robert Taylor opened the scoring after Bamba had hit the post, but Bamba ended his goal drought in a last minute breakaway, scoring for the first time since gameweek 3.

Godset lost at home to Viking 2-0 and in truth it was a pretty poor display as they struggle with consistency. They have won only 5 times this season and find themselves in 10th place. They did beat Brann 3-1 in the reverse fixture, but this will be tougher for them in Bergen.

Kåre Ingebritsen will take his place on the Brann bench for the first time on Saturday, looking to improve on the home form that has seen them win only 2 of their 7 home games so far this season.

Brann haven't won at home since the 12th of July, so they really need to be putting that right with a win this weekend. Bamba scoring is a huge boost, he has missed a lot of good chances this year, so a goal should help his confidence and I expect he could go on a nice run now. 

One thing with Godset is you can almost guarantee goals. 14 of their games have had at least 2 goals, and 8 of the last 10 games there have been at least 3. They had been on a good scoring run before last week, so expecting them to get at least one here.

In terms of corners, the last 6 games for both these teams have gone for 9 or more corners, so will likely add that to the bet builder. This is two teams that prefer to be on the attack, and they both have pace in wide areas and get plenty crosses in.

If i had to choose I'd fancy Brann to win, but their price is far too short, and no result would surprise me here.

Bet Builder: Both teams to score and 9+ corners in the match (2.21)

Goalscorers to add to Bet Builder: Bamba (2.10), Mawa (3.40) or Taylor (2.75)


Sunday 30th August 


Odd v Mjøndalen (Home Win)


Odd will be disappointed to have lost out to Molde last week, they played pretty well and felt aggrieved with some decisions that went against them, eventually losing out 2-0. They still sit nicely in third place and will be looking to bounce back this weekend.

Mjøndalen continue to find themselves in a bit of trouble, well beaten by Rosenborg last weekend 2-0, they currently sit in the relegation playoff spot. The real problem is 12 goals scored in 15 games, they can't seem to break teams down at all.

Odd won the reverse fixture 2-0 at Mjøndalen, and I fancy them pretty strongly to get the job done again this weekend. The away side have only kept 1 clean sheet in the previous 13 games, so with that added to the fact they struggle to score, it is unlikely Mjøndalen can get something out of this game.

Odd have won 4 in a row at home, including against Brann, Rosenborg and Kristiansund, all top half teams. It isn't a game i think there will be many goals with the way Mjøndalen generally set up, and despite Odd being on a great run, they have only scored more than 2 goals in one of the last 12 games.

One plus for Mjøndalen this year has been keeper Sosha Makani, 3 penalty saves this season as well as some really crucial saves. Two mistakes at the weekend though against RBK, he did have a penalty save, but will need to be more solid this week if they are to have any chance.

Bet Builder: Odd to Win, Under 4.5 Goals (2.00)

Goalscorers to add to Bet Builder: Lunding (3.50), Hoff (6.00) or Bakenga (2.25)


Rosenborg v Stabæk (Home Win)


Rosenborg come into this one on the back of a comfortable win in Europe against Icelandic club Breidablik. They also are coming in off a solid 2-0 win away a Mjøndalen which could have easily been more comfortable than it was. 

Home form is strong for Rosenborg, they have won 5 in a row at Lerkendal, only Glimt have beaten them there this season as well. It has been 16 goals in those 5 games scored, and only 4 against, as they have slowly sneaked up the table and sit just one point behind Odd.

Stabæk are on opposite form having not won for 6 games now. They lost 2-0 at home to Brann on Monday night, and although it was maybe a little unlucky as they hit the woodwork twice, once at 0-0 and once at 0-1. So the result could have been different, but 6 without a win is worrying, as although they sit 8th, they are only 6 points ahead of 15th placed Start.

I fancy Rosenborg strongly in this one and expect them to score at least two goals doing it, something they have done in those 5 previous home games. Stabæk on the road have won twice at Aalesund and Kristiansund, but this will be their toughest away game to date.

The reverse fixture was a windy evening at Stabæk in which Rosenborg won 3-0 with three second half goals. That was the start of the pick up in form for the Trondheim side who have climbed the table under Henriksen, and soon will have Åge Hareide in the dugout as he takes over next week.

I'm quite tempted to look at Stabæk to hit at least 4 corners for better than even money. They have hit at least 4 in 7 of the last 9 games, RBK conceded at least 4 in 6 of the the previous 9. 

Also there have been at least 8 corners in 12 of 15 RBK games, and 13 of 15 Stabæk games, so two decent attacking teams should provide plenty.

Bet Builder: RBK to win, RBK to score 2+ goals, 8+ corners in the match (2.15)

Goalscorers to add to Bet Builder: Børven (1.95), Zacahriassen (3.10) or Edvardsen (3.40)


Sandefjord v Kristiansund (Draw)


Sandefjord have picked up some good results recently, and although they sit in 13th place in the league, they are only two points off the top half of the table and will fancy their chances of staying up this season.

Last weekend they were beaten 2-1 at Vålerenga, the two late goals a real tough one to take after they had held on to the lead for so long, a lead given to them by Sivert Gussiås who now has 6 goals to his name.

Sadly for Sandefjord, left back Anton Kralj, a real creative outlet and quality player, looks likely to miss the rest of the season with a knee injury.

Kristiansund beat Sarpsborg 4-1 in a really good display, and they have found form themselves, four wins in the last five has taken them up to 6th in the table just behind Vålerenga. There was two more goals for top man Amahl Pellegrino, but the highlight of the day was a first ever senior goal for 16 year old Oskar Sivertsen on his debut. 

This is a real tough one to call, Sandefjord at home have beaten Molde, Mjøndalen and Aalesund recently, and they gave Glimt a real scare, who only survived for a 2-1 win. One thing to look for here is goals. 

Sandefjord have scored in 9 games in a row now, they are far more attacking than they had been early in the season. Add to that the fact Kristiansund have scored and conceded in 13 of the 15 games this season, it suggests we should see both teams scoring here.

Both teams previous 5 games have had at least 3 goals, including 5 games ago when these two met in Kristiansund, and the home side ended up 3-1 winners despite going in at half time 1-0 down.

It's a really hard one to call, maybe just give KBK the edge, but Sandejord at home, I won't be backing the away side at just better than even money.

Bet Builder: Both teams to score, over 2.5 goals (1.80)

Goalscorers to add to Bet Builder: Pellegrino (2.20), Gussiås (3.10) or Cellorio (3.40)


Sarpsborg v Bodø/Glimt (Away Win)


Sarpsborg were well beaten by Kristiansund last weekend, Jørgen Strand Larsen did get a goal though which will be good for his confidence, despite the poor result. It doesn't get any easier for them this week with the league leaders making the long trip to Sarpsborg.

Glimt will be full of confidence for this one as they remain unbeaten this season, in Europe as well, as they hammered Lithuanian team Kauno Zalgiris 6-1 on Thursday evening. 

Last week Glimt also scored 6 goals, at home to Start, so it is 12 goals in the last two games and Sarpsborg will be trying to stop the goal scoring machine that is the Glimt front 5.

Hard not to look at goals here, especially for the away side who have scored at least two in every game this season, including what was quite a tight game against Sarpsborg back in June, a 2-1 victory.

They have also scored in 27 halves of football this season, out of 30, which is an incredible record. Sarpsborg in the last six games have conceded 3 at Viking, 5 at Rosenborg and 4 at Kristiansund, but they are more stingey at home, giving away only 6 in the 8 home games so far.

I still will back Glimt here to win, and score goals, but maybe not as many as 4 or 5. Sarpsborg could keep it tight but it is worth backing the league leaders until it is broken.

Unbeaten after playing every team, and with a nice international break to rest up after this fixture, Glimt should be flying.

Bet Builder: Glimt to score in both halves and Glimt to win (2.75)

Goalscorers to add to Bet Builder: Hauge (2.10), Saltnes (3.75) or Boniface (2.10)


Start v Aalesund (Home Win)


Start were absolutely hammered last weekend by a rampant Glimt side, and will be happy to be back home in Kristiansand to play this weekend. They have won their previous two games here, so will be looking for another one here as 15th plays 16th.

Aalesund have a new manager in the dugout, Lars Bohinen got the sack after last weekends home defeat to Haugesund. Holmbert Fridjonsson gave his side the lead with goal number 11 of the season, but they ended up 3-1 losers.

Lars Arne Nielsen, former Brann manager, was quickly appointed this week, and he will be looking to turn around the fortunes of Aalesund, and stop them conceding goals somehow, 46 in 15 games. They will revert to a back 4 this weekend it seems likely, so we will see if that works out for them.

Fridjonsson could well be on his way out, worryingly for Aalesund, as it seems that Serie A could become a likely destination for the Icelandic star.

I fancy Start in this one to get the job done and climb away from Aalesund. They won against Mjøndalen and Vålerenga recently, so they should have the confidence at home. It could well be a tight game, expect Aalesund to be much less open than they have been so far this season.

Both teams are capable of scoring, Aalesund have scored in 13 of 15 games so far, conceding in every one. Start have scored 10 in their  home games so far, but have been better recently at home. This fixture produced a 3-2 last time out, but I can see it being much lower scoring this.

One interesting thing is Start have conceded at least 5 corners in 8 games in a row now, so might be worth putting on Aalesund to get some corners, especially if they are chasing the game when they likely concede.

Worth noting that 36 year old Costa Rica legend, and former Start player between 2008 and 2010, Christian Bolanos, has returned to the club and it will be very exciting to see how he gets on back in Norway. 

Bet Builder: Both teams to score, under 4.5 goals in the game (2.15)

Goalscorers to add to Bet Builder: Schulze(2.87), Fridjonsson (2.20) or Skålevik (2.05)



Viking v Molde (Away Win)


The final game of the weekend sees Molde visit Viking on Sunday night. Viking having won 2-0 at Strømsgodset last week will fancy their chances against Molde, who have been delayed a day on their return from Slovenia, after some Champions League action.

Joe Bell got a goal last week, adding to an own goal that had given them the lead in the second half. The home side are down in 12th having only won 4 times this season, twice at home, so this will be a tough test for them.

Molde beat Slovenian champions Celje on Wednesday evening, 2-1, to follow up their 2-0 win over Odd last Saturday. That was a really crucial win to pull away from Odd in the table, goals from Leke James and Marcus Holmgren Pedersen giving them the 3 points.

This should be a good game between two teams that prefer to play on the front foot. Viking have plenty quality in front areas, it is defensively they have struggled this season mainly. 21 goals for and 28 against backs that up, Molde will fancy they can add to the 5 goals they scored last time these two met, when Molde ran out 5-0 winners.

I think Molde have enough about them to win here, but I do think Viking can score and certainly cause a little bit of trouble to the makeshift Molde back line.

One potential issue might be the suspension of Wolff Eikrem. He is the creative man that links midfield and attack, but Hestad and Brynhildsen could both do a good job in replacing him. I fancy Hestad will start in a number 10 role.

I'm expecting goals, and also plenty corners in this one. 13 of 16 Molde games have had at least 9 corners, and Viking games have had at least 9 in all of the previous 9 games.

Bet Builder: Both teams to score, Molde 2+ goals, 9+ corners (2.62)

Goalscorers to add to Bet Builder: Hestad (2.25), James (1.85) or Berisha (2.50)



My Eliteserien Bets of the Weekend

Glimt to score in both halves (2.20) NAP

Molde to win (2.00)

Start to win (2.00)

RBK to win and score 2+ goals (1.80) NB


One Bet in Division 1

Ranheim - 1 to beat KFUM (2.20)




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