Saturday 26 September 2020

Gameweek 19 Preview

Bodø/Glimt took another giant step towards securing their first ever title last week, and this week they travelled to Milan for a huge game against AC Milan in Europa League.

Molde and Rosenborg were also in midweek European action and they have to balance those games with another round of league fixtures this weekend. Eight games over the two days, will Vålerenga be the team that can finally stop Glimt in their tracks, and will Aalesund ever win again.


Saturday 26th September


Molde v Sandefjord (Home Win)


The league form of Molde has completely disappeared, as has any chance of a title repeat. They are 16 points behind Glimt now after another defeat, their 6th in the last 9 games. 

Last weekend it wasn't a surprise off of the back of their European exploits, but Vålerenga beat them fairly comfortably, a late goal from Henry Wingo making the scoreline respectable in a 2-1 defeat, although they had played the 2nd half with 10 man after Kitolano was sent off.

Sandefjord played out a tactical affair with Strømsgodset in which they were probably a little lucky to come out with a 0-0 scoreline. It was a poor offensive display from Sandefjord and they will look to offer more this weekend.

Molde played Ferencvaros Wednesday night, fighting back from 2-0 down to lead 3-2, before a late penalty denied them a win. They play the return leg on Tuesday in Hungary, so I'm expecting plenty changes to the team on Saturday.

Molde have the ability to rotate with Brynhildsen, Ulland Andersen, Holmgren Pedersen, Omoijuanfo and Tobias Christensen, so expect to see all of them this weekend. They are all good players and although obviously Erling Moe doesn't see them as first choice right now, they are all capable.

I think being at home, and with the way they fought back on Wednesday night, I can see Molde being good enough to beat Sandefjord, but not as comfortably as they normally would if they didn't have the Champions League games.

Despite their defeats, Molde have still scored in every game this season, so no doubt that will continue here. Sandefjord have won 3 times away from home, but they have lost the other six, and they concede two goals on average on the road.

Molde have won every home game, except one, and they have scored 24 goals in the process, conceding just five. Although in their previous four games, they have failed to score in the first half, so maybe expect them to do their damage in the second half in this one.

Molde have conceded 4+ corners in every game, except two, this season. Sandefjord will be a good price to hit 4+, and given the rotation and fixture list for Molde, it is well worth it. 

Bet Builder: Molde to win 2nd half, 9+ corners in the match (2.33)

Goalscorers to add to Bet Builder: Eirik Andersen (2.05), Brynhildsen (2.20) or Gussiås (4.00)


Strømsgodset v Sarpsborg (Draw)


Godset played out that 0-0 draw with Sandefjord last week, they hit the bar and were slightly the better team, but now they are four without a win, and infact it's only two wins in their last ten games as they sit in 12th place in the table.

Sarpsborg won 2-0 at home to beleaguered Mjøndalen, as first half goals from Mos and Halvorsen were enough to give them a comfortable and deserved win. They have jumped up to 8th with their second win on the bounce, although they are only two points ahead of Godset in 12th.

This is a real tough one to pick a winner, two pretty even and inconsistent teams, with pretty different styles. Godset press high and score enough goals at home (15) but concede even more (18). Sarpsborg prefer to hit on the break away from home, as they have only scored 8, so they don't throw bodies forward.

Godset do generally score goals at home, at least two in 5 of their last 7 home games, but they leave themselves open, so both teams to score is quite likely this week. The reverse fixture finished 2-3 in Sarpsborg, two penalties helping the away side.

Last week is only the second time this season a Godset match has had had fewer than two goals in it, so I think we can expect them to return to their mean this weekend.

Sarpsborg beat Aalesund in their last away game, but their three previous were heavy defeats, conceding 3, 5 and 4 respectively.

I think we could see a high scoring draw here, but it is definitely a game in which I won't be surprised by any result, so it is tough to back results.

Corners can be looked at here as well, Godset games have had at least 9 corners in 11 games in a row, Sarpsborg have had at least 9 in 9 of their last 12 games. 

Bet Builder: Both teams to score, 9+ corners (2.15)

Goalscorers to add to Bet Builder: Salvesen (2.60), Mos Abdellaoue (2.60) or Heintz (4.33)


Sunday 27th September 

Aalesund v Rosenborg (Away Win)

Aalesund remain cut adrift at the bottom of Eliteserien as they remain on just one win all season. Goals from Nordli and Haugen last time out, only consolations as they shipped five against Viking.

Rosenborg come into this one after an excellent win over Alanyaspor in the Europa League. Anders Konradsen giving them a 1-0 win, and a tie against PSV in the next round.

Last week RBK came from behind to beat Haugesund, second half goals from Islamovic and Hedenstad giving them a narrow 2-1 win.

The away form of Rosenborg is the main worry in this one, winning only one in the previous 5 away fixtures. Although Aalesund obviously are a long way behind, I can see them causing Rosenborg a little bit of trouble in the first half here.

Aalesund have scored in the first half in 12 of their games, compared to only in the second half of 7 games. Add to that the European exploits for Rosenborg, I can see the home side getting a first half goal here.

RBK have scored 65% of their goals in the second half, so they usually take time to get going, and I can imagine it will be similar this week.

They have also scored 2+ in 8 of their previous 10 games, including the last 6 in a row. add to that they hit at least 5 corners almost every week(9 in last 10), you can guarantee RBK will be attacking plenty and we know how vulnerable Aalesund can be, especially to set pieces.

Islamovic is suspended this week, so Børven will be up top on his own, and hitting penalties, so worth a look at him scoring.

Bet Builder: Both teams to score, RBK 2+ goals, 9+ match corners (3.00)

Goalscorers to add to Bet Builder: Børven (1.95), Zacahriassen (3.10) or Haugen (4.33)


Haugesund v Odd (Away Win)


Haugesund were the latest team to lose at Lerkendal last week, despite Kristoffer Velde continuing his decent season with his 6th goal.

Odd on the other hand were back to winning ways with a comfortable 2-0 home win over Stabæk. The very impressive Elbasan Rashani got the opener, and the win was confirmed by the evergreen Espen Ruud, continuing to defy his 36 years of age.

Odd have won 7 out of 9 games now, only Molde and Glimt beating them in the current run, and they currently sit level on points with Molde, on 3rd place by their inferior goal difference.

Haugesund lost their last two games, and in fact it is four of the previous six they have lost, as they slip to 11th in the table. They are a decent side, particularly at home, where they have picked up 13 of their 21 points. They have however lost four times, and Odd come here in great form and are the superior team.

Odd have a great midfield 5, they all stand out and that is where they do most of their good work. If they had a top striker I am sure they would win even more games. I think they can win that midfield battle with Haugesund, 

Haugesund have only managed 19 goals all season, so they do struggle to find the net often, although their 27 conceded is the fewest of any team in te bottom half. I don't think it will be a hugely open encounter, but I do think Odd will win.

Haugesund home games average well over 12 corners, so I will be adding corners to the bet builder, at least 9 in eight of their nine home games.

Bet Builder: Odd draw/win double chance and 9+ corners (2.10)

Goalscorers to add to Bet builder: Rashani (3.00), Velde (4.33) or Lunding (4.50)


Kristiansund v Brann (Home Win)

Kristiansund saw off Start last weekend 2-1 in the Kristian derby, as they travelled south to Kristiansand. It was two direct free kicks that gave them the win, Amahl Pellegrino with his right, then Christofer Aasbak with his left.

Brann are really struggling now, early season promise has given way to mediocre displays, and their early season star, Gilbert Koomson has diseappeared on the pitch, and wants to disappear out the club before the end of the month.

Amahl Pellegrino is Kristiansund this season, he is the main candidate to win player of the year outside of half of the Glimt team, as he now sits on 18 league goals. Six games in a row he has scored, so I will be backing him to do so again against a Brann team that has given away 9 goals in 3 games. 

Two wins in 11 games for Brann is really not good enough, and Kristiansund will fancy their chances, having won 6 of their previous 8 games. They also score plenty goals usually, scoring at least two in 7 of their previous 8 games, just 1 against Odd.

Both teams have scored and conceded in 8 of the last 10, so I think it is likely both teams will score, but KBK will get at least one more than their visitors.

KBK sit two points behind 4th and 5th placed teams, Rosenborg and Vålerenga, so they will be out chasing a European spot. Meanwhile Brann sit only two points clear of Strømsgodset in 13th, as they risk being dragged down the league from 10th.

Bet Builder: Both teams to score, over 2.5 goals, Kristiansund to win either half (2.50)

Goalscorers to add to Bet Builder: Pellegrino (2.05), Bye (2.75) or Strand (3.75)


Mjøndalen v Viking (Away Win)


Mjøndalen suffered their 11th defeat in 13 as they were well beaten at Sarpsborg at the weekend as they now find themselves six points behind safety. 

Viking scored five goals for the second consecutive gameweek, putting 5 passed Aalesund in a 5-2 victory. That is 13 goals in three games, as Bytyqi and Berisha continue their excellent form in attack.

This is a game of two teams in completely opposite form, and I find it hard to see how Mjøndalen can stop Viking this weekend. Viking have scored at least two goals in their previous 6 games, and have won four in a row. 

Mjøndalen are in freefall, just two wins in 13, surrounded by those 11 defeats. Even worse reading is the 3 goals scored in the last 9 games. They have managed only 13 goals all season, stark comparison to the 34 scored by Viking.

Viking do concede plenty, 35 in total, but even that doesn't give much hope to Mjøndalen given how poor they are in attack.

I can't understand why Viking are better than evens for this game, and it is worth backing completely. Mjøndalen haven't done a lot well recently. The solid defense they built some decent early results on has disappeared, conceding 12 in their last 4 games.

Viking are up to 7th, and a win this weekend could see them close the gap on teams above them as they continue their push for a return to Europe, after they were beaten by Aberdeen last Thursday.

Bet Builder: Viking 2+ goals, and Viking to win either half (2.10)

Goalscorers to add to Bet Builder: Bytyqi (3.60), Berisha (2.50) or Ibrahimaj (4.33)



Stabæk v Start (Home win)

Stabæk lost at Odd last weekend 2-0, and they are in a little bit of trouble with one win in the last nine. They sit 7 points clear of Start who sit in that relegation playoff spot, so this week is a big game for both clubs.

Start lost 2-1 at home to Kristiansund, a late Christian Bolanos goal was only a consolation, and now they need to start perofmring better on the road, only two points so far.

Stabæk are very steady at home, 3 wins, draws and defeats as they seem to struggle for consistency. Nine goals for and 10 against in their nine home games tells the story of a team that maybe struggle to open up at home.

Start have scored only 7 goals on the road, so I'm not expecting many goals in this game, although Start have conceded 17 goals in their previous four away games. A quick note though, that includes Glimt, Molde and Kristiansund, the top 3 scorers in the league.

The reverse fixture perhaps unsurprisingly was 0-0, and although I think we will see at least one goal in this one it will be tight. Emil Bohinen is likely to miss out for Stabæk, the midfielder is a big part of play from central midfield. For Start, Eirik Schulze is suspended, so both teams missing crucial players.

At least 8 corners is likely, that has happened in 9 games in a row for Stabæk, and in 10 of the last 12 for Start.

I think Stabæk will get the win here, but it will be very tight and a 0-0 or 1-1 draw would not surprise me come the end of the game Sunday.

Bet Builder: Stabæk to win either half, 8+ corners in the match, 4 or fewer goals in the match (2.60)

Goalscorers to add to Bet Builder: Vetlesen (4.33), Skytte (4.33) or Bringaker (3.75)


Bodø/Glimt v Vålerenga (Home Win) 

Glimt were introduced to the rest of Europe on Thursday night with that impressive display in Milan on Thursday. Losing 3-2 at the San Siro, but playing some excellent front foot football, they won many plaudits and deservedly so. Jens Petter Hauge was outstanding, and now the rumour mill is well and truly under way as he could well be on the way out for a lot of money.

Last week they remained unbeaten in the league with a nice 3-1 win against Brann in Bergen. Goals from Hauge, and an excellent double from Philip Zinckernagel takes them on to 14 and 13 goals respectively.

Vålerenga beat Molde at home 2-1, a good display as they remained unbeaten at home. Another goal from Kjartansson was added to by Aron Dønnum as they held on against 10 man Molde. 

This is a tough game for Glimt 3 days after that game in Milan, but they return from that with even more confidence in themselves I'd imagine. They have won every home game this season and Vålerenga will know how tough this is.

The away side have not got a great record, just three wins in nine games, completely different to how good they have looked at home. This long journey to Bodø will not be easy, but I think we will see goals as usual in Glimt games.

Glimt have scored six in their last two home games, but I doubt we will see so many. Their matches have all had at least three goals, something that has happened in all of the last eight Vålerenga games. 

Glimt do concede, and with Vålerenga in scoring form, at least a goal in nine in a row, they should get on the scoresheet, but they only have nine away goals, so it might be tough for them here.

I fancy Glimt to remain unbeaten, and I think they will win again. It might be tough with the Milan game not long ago, but I'm sure they have the energy and quality to create and score chances.

Brunstad Fet is suspended for this one, so we will probably see Solbakken, and it is possible Hauge has a slight injury, so it will be interesting to see how the odds are come kick off.

Bet Builder: Glimt to win either half, both teams to score, over 2.5 goals in the game (2.00)

Goalscorers to add to Bet Builder: Boniface (2.10), Saltnes (3.75) or Kjartansson (2.50)


Eliteserien Bets of the Week


Viking to beat Mjøndalen (2.1) NAP

Odd 0.0 Asian Handicap v Haugesund (1.97) 

Amahl Pellegrino to score v Brann (2.05)

Vålerenga to score in the First Half v Glimt (2.2)


No comments:

Post a Comment