Gameweek 26 in Eliteserien and with five games left to go we already have our champions. Bodø/Glimt confirming themselves as champions with a win away at Strømsgodset, the first ever title for the club and the first club from the North of Norway to win the top division.
I will be writing a piece on them specifically regarding their season as a whole, but lets concentrate on what is a good battle for European spots, and also what is becoming a huge fight down at the bottom to survive relegation.
The usual eight games this weekend over Saturday and Sunday, plus a full card in midweek, except Molde and Rosenborg who can't play due to Molde being in the Europa League.
Gameweek 25 Review
Vålerenga to win an over 2.5 goals - Unbelievably they couldn't even beat Aalesund. A 1-1 draw. They hit the post late on which would have landed the bet, but it wasn't to be.
Molde to win and score 2+ goals - A 3-0 win for Molde in Stabæk, a really convincing display.
Odd HT/FT - Odd lost at home to Start. A first away win of the season for Start, and Odd losing a game at home for the first time in 11 games.
Sogndal HT/FT - Sogndal beat Grorud 2-1, unfortunately it was 1-1 at the half time break.
Only 3/8 of the bet builders coming in as well means a bad weekend for me. It isn't going so well on the betting front, but hopefully this week things will pick up.
Saturday 28th November
Viking v Start (Home Win)
Viking are back in form again after a blip post international break, and have now won two on the bounce thanks to a good win away at Sarpsborg.
They fell behind early in the second half, but a double from Ibrahimaj, the second one a quality finish from outside the box, turned the game on its head and gave Viking three points.
Start picked up their first three points on the road all season with a huge win against Odd. They completely deserved it too, creating plenty of chances and eventually winning it late on 1-2. Schulze had given them the lead before they were pegged back, but Kevin Kabran scored for the second week running to give them a huge boost in their push to avoid relegation.
Start have jumped above Strømsgodset into 13th and have a five point gap to Mjøndalen in that automatic relegation spot.
So both of these teams come into this one after back to back wins and confidence high, but Viking being at home should give them the advantage, as well as the fact Start have generally been so poor away from home.
Chasing is easier than being ahead when you are at the bottom, so I wonder how Start will react now they have a one point lead over Strømsgodset to protect.
Start keep it tight on the road, defending deep and in numbers, trying to counter attack quickly, so it might be tough for Viking. Start have only conceded once in each of their last three away games. They have conceded in every away game though, so don't expect them to keep a clean sheet.
Only once this season have Viking failed to score at home, so I am expecting them to score, but also given how Start have been playing, and also how Viking generally defend, I can see both teams scoring here.
Ibrahimaj, Vikstøl and Løkberg are all suspended for Viking, as well as defensive injuries, the squad is quite thin. Start have no such issues, so they come here full strength.
I think it might be tight, not too high scoring, but I can see both teams scoring and Viking maybe nicking it, although I wouldn't be surprised to see a draw in this one.
Viking matches usually throw up corners, at least 10 in 8 of the last 12 games, 9 in 17 of 19 games, so play that on your bet builder.
edit: Bjarne Berntsen, the Viking manager was sacked Thursday just after I wrote this. Very surprising, but hopefully won't affect the way the game goes, as he will still be there, but will leave at the end of the season
Bet Builder: Both teams to score, 10+ match corners (2.26)
Goalscorers to add to Bet Builder: Berisha (2.30), Bytyqi (3.25) or Schulze (4.33)
Brann v Aalesund (Home Win)
Brann got the result of the gameweek, going to Lerkendal on Tuesday night and coming away with a 2-3 win. They were 3-0 up just at the start of the second half when Sander Svendsen fired home in off the bar for his first Brann goal.
The first two goals had come in the space of a minute in the first half. Robert Taylor smashed one in from 25 yards, before Bamba was put clean through by a poor Tagseth pass for Rosenborg. Bamba made no mistake, the man with the highest xG in all of Eliteserien has certainly missed his fair share of chances, but tucked it away easily.
Aalesund themselves put in a good display and drew 1-1 at home to Vålerenga. In windy conditions they probably deserved the point, and definitely had the better chances in the first half. The goal came from a corner as Bizoza headed home which gave them a lead that they couldn't hang on to.
This game I can see Brann going on and winning again, although they did look tired on Tuesday night. The 3 points should have lifted pressure, and I think they are good enough to win this one.
Aalesund have picked up some decent points in recent weeks, but they are still the worst team in the league. Castro and Haugen are both going to miss this weekend too which is a blow, as for Brann they have the same squad to choose from as Tuesday.
Aalesund have only scored twice in 5 games, lucky for them it has resulted in 4 points. But that is an issue, because before they were leaking goals but scoring. Now they are conceding fewer but hardly scoring.
They will likely keep it tight, but Brann have 8 goals in the last 4 games, so I can see them scoring a couple here, especially with the confidence of Tuesday behind them.
Aalesund play a solid back 5, and look to break, but without Castro they are missing the link, and without Haugen they are missing the pace up top. So I worry they will struggle to create much. A home win should be on the cards, and Brann know if they win this week they are basically safe.
The last three Brann games have had 20, 18 and 16 corners, so I expect there to be plenty in this game.
Bet Builder: Brann 2+ goals, 10+ match corners (2.30)
Goalscorers to add to Bet Builder: Svendsen (2.10), Bamba (2.05) or Fiskerstrand (5.50)
Sunday 29th November
Bodø/Glimt v Rosenborg (Home Win)
Glimt are the champions officially, but we have known for months they would do it. They confirmed it with another win, this time a 1-2 victory away at Strømsgodset. Goals came from the usual sources, Junker and Zinckernagel with one each, taking Junker just two behind Pellegrino now on 19 goals.
Rosenborg played Tuesday night and lost again, this time at home, again shipping three goals. They were three down just after half time, and although they showed some fight to come back to 2-3, it was not a good performance.
Their goals came from Zacahriassen and Eyjolfsson late on, but it was too little to late as they slip to 4th a point behind Vålerenga.
This game is maybe a little tough to decide on, but some reasons I will give for thinking that Glimt will still be motivated are as follows. They are one win away from the record for the most in a season, three goals away, and four points away. So they have plenty to play for.
Glimt are still 100% at home, winning all 12 of their games, and last time out beat Aalesund 7-0. They have scored 46 goals and conceded just 8, a really impressive record that I think they will be looking to uphold this Sunday.
That is why I fancy them to win this weekend, and if they play to their level they certainly have a better team than Rosenborg. Berg and Lode are still out for the home side, Henriksen and Hansen are both out still for the visitors.
Glimt have still scored at least 2 in every game, so hopefully that continues, and I don't think Rosenborg will sit in, so it should be an open game.
Goals, and probably corners in this one. Rosenborg are the corner kings of Norway, and I expect they will be well priced to get some away from home here.
Bet Builder: Glimt 2+ goals, Glimt to win either half, 9+ match corners (2.50)
Goalscorers to add to Bet Builder: Zinckernagel (2.25), Solbakken (3.75) or Zachariassen (4.00)
Kristiansund v Strømsgodset (Draw)
Kristiansund beat Mjøndalen 1-0 last week, a 3rd minute goal from Dan Peter Ulvestad was enough for them as they beat the windy conditions as well as the opposition. They remain 6th, and are just five points away from a European spot, so still plenty to play for.
Strømsgodset are deep in trouble and have dropped into the relegation playoff spot after last weeks defeat to Glimt, coupled with Start beating Odd. Eleven games now without a win, they showed some fight against Glimt, coming back to 2-1 after being 2-0 down in the first half, but it wasn't to be.
The goal they scored came from Ingimundarson, who looked lively throughout and was always the most likely goal threat.
This game therefore still has meaning for both teams, especially with Rosenborg playing Glimt, it could give a chance for Kristiansund to get within two points of European football.
Kristiansund are the third highest scorers in the division with 47, and they also boast Pellegrino who has 21 goals and is the top scorer in the league. Godset have conceded 47, making them the second worst defense in the league. However, the home side have only picked up 19 points at home, and 21 away, so they tend to be better playing on the counter attack.
Godset lost badly away last time at Mjøndalen, but recently have drawn at Viking, Brann and Sandefjord, so I am backing a draw in this one in a game they need to get something from.
It is possible they lose, and set pieces for Kristiansund could be crucial this week with the height and strength they possess all over the pitch.
Godset have managed one clean sheet away from home all season, so I would expect the home side to get in the goals, but I fancy Godset to grab one too in what is likely to be an even game.
The last 8 Kristiansund games have had 10 or more corners, and given that both these clubs will be wanting a result, I can see that happening again here, as neither can afford to drop points really.
Bet Builder: 10+ match corners and over 2.5 match goals (2.21)
Goalscorers to add to Bet Builder: Kalludra (3.40), Psyche (5.00) or Salvesen (2.87)
Mjøndalen v Stabæk (Home Win)
Mjøndalen will be disappointed to have lost at Kristiansund, but they are still in the hunt for survival, although they are now five points behind Start. That makes this week absolutely crucial.
Stabæk lost at home to Molde 0-3, but they are safe in mid table and don't have much left to play for. They would probably like one more win just to be sure though.
Mjøndalen have relied on their home form of late, recent wins against Strømsgodset and Brann have given them hope that they can survive, and they have shown real fight at home which makes me think they can win this one too.
Stabæk drew 3 in a row, but that loss last week means it is four without a win, and in fact they haven't won away from home since Aalesund back in July. Two wins and six draws away from home this season is probably not as good as they would have hoped. With that record, and nothing really to play for, I think the home side have the edge.
Mjøndalen have won big games against bottom half teams at home this season, plus they still have to welcome Aalesund and Start, so it has the potential to be a great escape if they can make their home a fortress.
I think it will be pretty tight here, the home side have only scored 12 home goals in 12 games, conceding 17, so it isn't a ground to see goals.
Stabæk have scored 15 away from home in 12 games, so neither side are prolific, and with nerves potentially in play for the home side, if they get a lead, I think they might sit back.
In the last 11 Mjøndalen games, there has been at least one first half goal, so I am banking on that again.
Bet Builder: 1+ first half goal, under 3.5 match goals (2.10)
Goalscorers to add to Bet Builder: Brustad (3.75), Ovenstad (6.00) or Edvardsen (3.00)
Molde v Haugesund (Home Win)
Molde won well at Stabæk last week, 0-3, goals coming from Stian Gregersen and a double from Leke James. They have followed that up however with a 0-3 defeat at home to Arsenal in the Europa League. They played well first half, but were well beaten in the second by a strong Arsenal side.
Haugesund have confirmed safety now and jumped up to 8th place in the table with back to back wins. Last week they beat Sandefjord 3-2, a 90th minute winner from Kristoffer Velde giving them the three points. He had earlier missed a penalty, but redeemed himself with an absoluely quality left footed strike as he continues to have a strong season the 21 year old.
The other goals in the game came from Tiedemann Hansen and Ibrahima Kone as Haugesund twice had been pegged back before Velde struck late.
This game coming three days after Arsenal might be tough on Molde, but I expect they will continue their good form with another win. Unbeaten in six with five of them being wins, I think they will have enough to beat Haugesund.
Molde seem to do most of their good work in the second half domestically, winning the 2nd half in all 6 of their previous 6 games. They have good squad depth and usually make it count towards to end of games.
I also fancy them to score at least two goals, something they have done in every win this season, except their first home game of the year against Rosenborg.
Haugesund don't have much to play for so can play with freedom, so I think we will see goals in this one probably from both teams. But it won't surprise me if Molde just come out winners in the end.
Bet Builder: Molde to win the second half, Molde 2+ goals, Both teams to score (3.50)
Goalscorers to add to Bet Builder: Brynhildsen (2.30), Hussain (2.87) or Velde (5.50)
Sandefjord v Odd (Draw)
Sandefjord lost 3-2 at Haugesund last time out, a red card from Harmeet Singh not helping his team when the game was tied 2-2.
Jacob Storevik saved a penalty to continue what has been a fine season in goals for the Sandefjord keeper, but unfortunately he could do nothing about the late Velde strike.
Odd lost at home to Start in the shock of the weekend. It was a really poor performance from them as their unbeaten run of 10 games at home came to and end against a team who hadn't won away all season.
Joshua Kitolano had levelled the game in the second half, but they in all truth didn't deserve to be level and lost the game late on.
As a result Odd are now three points behind Rosenborg for that 4th European spot, and this game becomes must win. Sandefjord are four points clear of Strømsgodset and so will be looking to win to almost certainly stay in the division, which would be a great achievement for the club.
In Odd's last six away games, they have lost at all of the top four, drawn at Haugesund, and beaten Aalesund, so it hasn't been great. They need to be better on the road, and in contrast, Sandefjord need to do better at home, picking up only 13 points at home, fewer than they have picked up away from home.
It makes this game hard to predict, Sandefjord have scored just 10 goals at home all season, a league low. So they can't be relied upon to create chances.
I think Odd have struggled recently because Hoff has been playing defense, and they miss him in midfield. This week potentially Rashani and Kaasa could both miss out too with injuries, and if that is the case this game lacks creativity.
Rufo, Singh and Kralj are all missing for the home side, so I don't think this game will be too high on quality, and certainly not expecting a big amount of goals. Only twice all season has there been more than 3 goals in a Sandefjord home game, so it is not to be expected here.
In 8 of 12 games for these teams when they are playing home and away as they are this week, both teams haven't scored, so it is risky, but worth a look as this game could be tight.
Bet Builder: under 3.5 match goals, both teams to score NO (2.37)
Goalscorers to add to Bet Builder: Rodic (3.50), Vega (3.50) or No Goals (13.00)
Vålerenga v Sarpsborg (Home Win)
Vålerenga were so poor last week at Aalesund, dropping points against the bottom side is a real blow. They drew 1-1, equalising through Aron Dønnum from the penalty spot, although it was a very soft penalty as Sahraoui went to ground.
Sarpsborg went ahead through defender Utvik right at the start of the second half, but they lost two goals and lost the game to Viking. The first was a mistake from keeper Mitov Nilsson, the second a quality strike, but Sarpsborg will be disappointed.
They are another team four points clear of the playoff spot, equal with Brann and Sandefjord, so they could use a win to pretty much guarantee their safety.
Vålerenga have one of two unbeaten home records in the league, they have been outstanding at Intility Arena, winning eight and drawing four of their 12 games.
Sarpsborg have been better home than away this year, picking up just 9 points away from home, so it makes Vålerenga big favourites this weekend. They have won 5 out of 6 home games, and scored at least two goals in all but two games this season at home, scoring in every one.
Sarpsborg have conceded in all but 3 away games, Aalesund, Sandefjord and Godset the 3 that failed to get one passed them. Having said that, a draw at Odd recently showed they are a decent side, and this won't be plain sailing for Vålerenga.
I fancy them to win, but not by a huge amount, and I can see this being a really good game with both sides scoring in it. A good way to end Sunday evening, this should be a quality encounter.
Sarpsborg have a little bit of a striker crisis, but they do have enough players capable of playing an advanced role. Vålerenga have no real injury or suspension issues, and will be full strength as they try to keep the pressure on Molde.
Bet Builder: Both teams to score, Vålerenga 2+ goals, Vålerenga to win either half (2.80)
Goalscorers to add to Bet Builder: Dønnum (2.87), Heintz (6.50) or Bjørdal (5.00)
Bets of the Weekend
Glimt to win v Rosenborg (1.90)
Brann and Molde win Double (2.02)
I'm afraid that is it this week, with corona virus affecting all but one fixture in OBOS Ligaen, no bets from there.
Unsure if I will have time to do a full preview of the midweek gameweek, maybe just some bets, we will see.
Thanks for reading
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